A New Wave of Separatism

The declaration of independence of Kosovo and its subsequent recognition by the international community has set up a precedent for other separatist republics. This precedent has been further reinforced by the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. While as of now Russia and Nicaragua are the only countries to recognize them this is not due to a lack of support as other countries in Latin America and the former Soviet Union are likely to follow suit in time. However, this action has only increased the chances of further action later especially with the Serb action to have the declaration reviewed by the International Court of Justice.

Any decision they reach which does not label Kosovo a unique case and declare its secession illegal is likely to leave legal room for countries to recognize other separatist regions at their discretion. Two likely cases outside the Former Soviet Union could be Republika Srpska and Somaliland.

In Republika Srpska an election is being planned for October 5th which will determine who leads the autonomous region in Bosnia and Herzegovina. While a loss by the ruling party seems unlikely either way could result in its secession from Bosnia. Prime Minister of the region, Milorad Dodik, has himself said he has no attachment to Bosnia, but does have a strong attachment to Republika Srpska. Dodik has had to deal with growing pressure from the Muslim Bosnian government to consolidate the two autonomous regions comprising the country into one single unitary entity, a goal they share with EU. He has threatened to have a referendum on independence if there can be no progress on the dispute honoring his demand for maintaing the current autonomy or even expanding it. While he declared his desire for them to "part in peace" which might prove difficult given the Brcko district bisecting the two regions. Dodik could receive support from Serbia given his strong ties with President Tadic and pressure from nationalists in his own government and the opposition.

It's unlikely such a secession would receive world backing however, with the more likely candidate for such support being Somaliland, a separatist republic in Somalia. Having declared independence back in 1991 it has yet to receive any recognition but signs are growing that the situation may change. Ongoing civil war in Somalia has made the stable and democratic government in Somaliland look increasingly appeal to all interested parties and as it opted into the country of Somalia it has greater standing for independence than other secessionist groups.

Of particular interest are the actions of Ethiopia. Having gone into Somalia in 2006 to prevent the Islamic Courts Union from dominating the country the Ethiopian government is seeing itself in an increasingly untenable position. The Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Meles Zenawi, has hinted Ethiopian troops may pull out of the country though calling for African Union troops to take their place. Any pullout could also involve a two-state solution being pursued with Somalia by recognizing the Republic of Somaliland as independent, a move which would likely receive the support of western governments. Supposedly this scenario would involve Somaliland deploying troops to help fight against the Islamic Courts Union and expelling member of the Ogaden Liberation Front residing in Somaliland. It also is possible the situation represents a distancing between Ethiopia and Puntland which has been implicated in actions supporting pirates in the area.

This could also insure increased support for Somaliland among Western governments already pursuing closer relations with them. With Puntland possibly backing piracy against Western ships and southern Somalia wracked by violence Somaliland would likely appear to be the only pro-Western and democratic region of the country not under foreign control. As such it is of little surprise that security ties with the French seem to be improving with Somaliland officials saying French security operations in the region include actions launched from the unrecognized state. This is a policy to try and increase the chance of recognition from France as is a trip to meet with European leaders by Somaliland's president with trips to France, Germany, and the United Kingdom planned including an appeal for the European Union to treat Somaliland separate from Somalia with regards to foreign aid. A visit by the African Union envoy to Somalia could also signal possible action by them to recognize Somaliland. The U.S. is also looking at increasing aid to Somaliland and is increasing contacts with breakaway government which could help pave the way for recognition. Should the situation in Somalia deteriorate considerably a concerted action similar to the one in Kosovo could take place though possibly following the 2009 elections there.

Such actions independently would not hold much significance but together it represents a trend suggesting the first major separatist wave since the end of the Cold War, with Kosovo as the major starting point.