The proxy war for Bolivia

It was in Bolivia over 40 years ago where Cuban revolutionary Che Guevara was executed after being captured by forces of the U.S.-backed dictatorship there. Che had the support of Cuba, the sole communist country in Latin America at the time and dedicated to exporting the revolution to the rest of the continent. Now the tables have turned and it is the U.S. backing an insurgency against a socialist leader backed by Venezuela. While Che's revolution was in the name of Marx, the revolution instituted by Evo Morales is in the name of 19th Century revolutionary Simon Bolivar, an advocate for the unification of South America.

Like President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela the Bolivian president came to power through the ballot box riding a wave of populism. Morales promised to use revenue from natural gas for social welfare and redistribute land to the indigenous inhabitants of Bolivia, which have both been enshrined in a new constitution, on which Morales has planned a referendum for December. These measures while popular with the majority indigenous population proved controversial in the eastern provinces of the country, rich in natural gas, especially among Bolivians with European ancestry who would see themselves lose considerable economic advantages. They also claim the constitution considerably increases Morales' power.

This schism has led to referendums on autonomy for the eastern provinces and escalating protests to the point of cutting off natural gas exports. Bolivian troops deployed in the provinces came under increasing threat of attack from the opposition governors demanding their withdrawal from the regions. Protests finally resulted in outright conflict between supporters of Morales and his opponents in the province of Pando which is believed to have resulted in 30 deaths including opposition and Morales supporters. Ultimately Morales resorted to launching a state of emergency in Pando and sent troops to take the airport on the outskirts of provincial capital and proceeded to retake the city from the opposition. He also ordered for the provincial governor to be arrest accusing him of committing a massacre.

Morales had initially shown a desire to negotiate on the details of the constitution though he has reiterated his intention to hold the referendum. Talks which have been held with the opposition have shown some progress, though results remain in doubt. Of particular danger is an opposition warning that any more deaths among members of the opposition would result in the cancellation of talks. With the Bolivian military patrolling the capital of Pando and opposition members warning they may resist any moves to formally enter the city the chances for renewed conflict remain. Should such a situation result in the death of opposition members and a breaking of talks, the potential for more violent resistance increases and it is likely Morales will follow through on his threat to extend martial law to the other eastern provinces.

How events unfold from there could depend on the actions of the military and opposition. Should the situation erupt into a full-on civil war the potential for a coup or assassination against Morales greatly increases. Hugo Chavez has threatened in such an event that he would support military operations to restore the government. Chavez also condemned the military for what he believed was a lack of action possibly suggesting the military itself was against Morales. It would be possible for the military to take advantage of a period of civil unrest or civil war to seize power from Morales. Such an event would likely be no more successful than the attempt against Chavez with its chances made considerably worse with the support of Venezuelan armed forces. However, there would be little denying the likely backing of the U.S. government for a Bolivian junta and opposition movements.

Indeed, such support for the opposition governors has already been alleged by Morales, leading to the expulsion of America's ambassador to the country. It is that event which shows the extent to which the U.S. has been shut out of Latin America. In support of Bolivia's action Venezuela followed up by expelling the American ambbassador to his country, also accusing the U.S. of supporting a coup attempt against him. Honduras, which recently joined the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas begun by Chavez, also gave a snub to the U.S. delaying the reception of the American mabbassador. Nicragua's President Daniel Ortega head of the Sandinistas who was also president in the 80's and opposed by a U.S.-backed insurgency at the time also made a show of solidarity by rejecting a meeting with President George W. Bush.

The diplomatic retaliation has increased a crisis with both Bolivia and Venezuela. Before his departure the U.S. ambassador warned of "serious consequences" for Bolivia and accused Morales of underestimating retaliation from Washington. On Venezuela it already seems clear what consequences are in store for it. Quickly after Venezuela's ambassador to the U.S. was expelled the Treasury Department accused two senior Venezuelan intelligence officials of backing the FARC, a leftist terror group in Colombia. One official suggested further economic measures and even designation of Venezuela as a terror sponsor could follow. The accusations against Chavez and his government have their roots in a crisis earlier in the year when Colombia launched a raid into Ecuadorian territory to attack a FARC encampment. President Rafael Correa of Ecuador was another member of Chavez's Bolivarian alliance and both leaders cut ties with Colombia with Venezuela deploying its military to the Colombian border warning any incursion into Venezuela would result in war. Nicaragua also cut diplomatic relations with Colombia following the action. While the situation was later resolved it was likely the first sign of the clashing interests of the United States and its allies with the Bolivarian nations led by Venezuela.

While the backing of Venezuela's Bolivarian allies is to be expected the real sign of the decline of U.S. influence in the region has been the reaction of large nations such as Brazil to the crisis in Bolivia and in March, with Brazil backing the Bolivarian side in both cases. Indeed most of South America has sided with the Bolivarian alliance and it is not just regional support where the U.S. is seeing its interests challenged. Russia has long been an ally of Venezuela and has recently moved long-range bombers to the country for military exercises to be followed by a joint naval exercise with Venezuela. Also while the Bolivarian alliance is divided on its ties with Washington, some more being conciliatory than others, and China, with countries like Nicarague and Honduras still maintaining formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan, they all have been supportive of Russia with Nicaragua being the second country to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia following Russia itself.

Brazil also has deepened its Russian ties joining Russia and India in the Su PAK FA fifth generation fighter project. The move shores up the Russian project providing much needed financial backing and also extends Russia's influence in the region. In this light while the internal unrest in Bolivia can be seen as a move by the U.S. to challenge the growing support of Chavez and increasing resistance of South America to U.S. dominance it also could be placed in a global context as a push against Russian penetration into a traditional sphere of influence for the United States.