Russia moves towards recognition of breakaway states

A hearing taking place on today has led to some significant recommendation by the Committee on CIS of the Russian Duma. The recommendations reportedly include:

• Examining the possibility of opening diplomatic missions in the three regions.
• Boosting humanitarian and economic assistance for Russian passport holders in the breakaway regions.
• "Examining the possibility of changing the format" for Russia's relations with Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transdniestria, which could include recognition.
• A proposal to abolish customs tariffs on goods imported into Russia from businesses in the three regions that have Russian shareholders.

Beyond this other reports mention the possibility of Russia pushing for their inclusion in international organizations. This hearing did not include Nagorno-Karabakh, which has been left up to Armenia and status negotiations. A Russian paper explained the significance of this fairly well saying, "This is in practice the launch of a procedure of recognition."

The implications of the recommendations should they be adopted and implemented is profound, even if recognition does not follow. Having already removed sanctions on Abkhazia, Russia would also effectively eliminate tariffs. Setting up a consulate alongside this will only further the impression of Russian recognition and, not only that, but annexation. Many in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transnistria are effectively if not actually Russian citizens. With a Russian military detachment present in every last region in one form or another the possibility their moves can be seen as anything short of annexation is unlikely.

Georgia and the U.S. are certainly to see any implementation of these recommendations as effective recognition and annexation. Whether Russia goes even further and officially recognizes the regions, particularly those in Georgia, depends on the actions of NATO with regards to Georgia. Of particular note is the Bucharest Summit being held from April 2 to April 4. This is when Georgia may be inducted into the MAP or Membership Action Plan, a move Russia's ambassador to NATO has already warned could result in the formal secession of the unrecognized republics in Georgia.

To this point German Chancellor Angela Merkel has notably come out saying Georgia can not join NATO due to ongoing conflicts in the country. However, nowhere does she comment on Georgia's possible offer of a MAP, meaning such a decision could be supported by Germany but not a formal invitation to join. If NATO makes the offer and Russia responds by formally completing the process of recognition already being initiated there will unavoidably be a conflict between Russia and Georgia.

Such a conflict will bring the boiling tempers between Russia and the West to their highest point in decades and NATO may then see Georgia less as a liability for membership but a necessary guarantee to prevent Russian expansionism. NATO membership for Georgia will then insure that the next conflict between the two nations will end with a conflict between NATO and Russia.