Middle East on Verge of Major War

Mugniyeh's death over a month ago has sparked fears of Hezbollah retaliation and it's being suggested that Monday may be the day when such retaliation comes or may be used to justify an oncoming attack. Hezbollah will hold a rally honoring Mugniyeh and the end of the mourning period of his death. They may use the moment to rally their supporters behind an inevitable war resulting from Hezbollah retaliation. Such a war could engulf all of Lebanon and may even spread to Syria and Gaza.

It should be of no surprise then that Syria has deployed some three divisions of troops on the Lebanese border, likely preparing for or anticipating a massive Israeli attack in Lebanon and maybe even attack against Syria. Other reports are saying the attack by Hezbollah may be done simultaneously with actions by Syria and Iran and may even include attacks by Hamas. The dangers of a war of such scale should not be underestimated.

While Iranian involvement would likely invite American retaliation, especially as it appears military action is again in the works concerning Iran's nuclear plans, it will probably not invite a massive war with Iran. Israel is likely to be incapacitated as it faces off against Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas, while the U.S. will likely be facing difficulties in Iraq, and probably will not have sufficient resources deployed to launch a full-scale air and naval attack on Iran.

Such a conflict therefore will primarily involve Israel, Syria, Lebanon, and Palestine. However, this would likely be an intense and arduous conflict. Of particular notice is the stark advancement in Hezbollah's rocket arsenal. With an estimated 40,000 rockets and missiles Hezbollah would be able to launch a large-scale attacks against Israel well beyond the intensity of the 2006 Lebanon War. More notably is a larger number of these would have a reach of some 200 miles from north of the Litani putting almost all of Israel in Hezbollah's targets. When one considers the massive arsenal built up by Hamas and the inclusion of Syria's arsenal, which itself includes Scuds with far greater range, Israel could face a flurry of missile throughout the country.

During the 2006 Lebanon War Israelis in the North were forced into bomb shelters for weeks. In a renewed conflict the same situation would be repeated throughout all of Israel with Israel likely facing a military attack from Syria to retake the Golan Heights, which could pave way for a full-on invasion to force a concession out of Israel. Syria has armed itself with the latest anti-air and anti-tank weapons from Russia which combined with its military aircraft are sure to wreck havoc on Israel. Syria's push combined with Hezbollah's retaliation and the launch of a massive attack by Hamas might overwhelm Israel incapable of dealing with an endless onslaught of missiles as well as a military attack all designed specifically to strike at Israel's strengths. Faced with its most dire situation since the Yom Kippur War Israel may resort to extreme means including the use of nuclear weapons.

If Israel used nuclear weapons it would most likely be as a result of a crippling unexpected defeat and will probably be directed at the most important target imaginable, Damascus. Being the largest city in Syria and the capital it would be the most psychologically, politically, and militarily effective target. Wiping out the entire area with a dozen or so nuclear weapons would either send Syria into a crisis or force a peace.

While such a strategy could be effective in stopping a defeat it would only heighten Iran's concerns with Israel becoming only the second nation to use nukes in a conflict while the first is allied with them and both nations seeing Iran as the ultimate threat in the region. Iran is likely to seek out a major ally which will likely be Russia and Iran will probably push inexorably towards a nuclear weapon with Russia removing its opposition.

Of course, if Iran gets a nuclear weapon Saudi Arabia will ultimately seek to do the same in order to avoid relying on Israel or the United States. The nuclearization of the Middle East would mean the next Middle Eastern war would be an atomic one.