Fallout from Kosovo looming

On Monday UN and NATO forces clashed with Serbs in Northern Kosovo after seizing a court in Mitrovica. Serbia has been endorsing attempts by Serbs in Kosovo to seize infrastructure in Northern Kosovo and ignore orders from Kosovo's central government. The most eerie comment to exemplify this came from Serbia's Minister for Kosovo who said, "We will protect you just like we protect the Serbs in Serbia," which would suggest this includes military force as the military of Serbia would surely intervene if a foreign country was attacking Serbs within Serbia.

There's no indication Serbia has yet gone to those lengths, but they may be headed in this direction in the future. They may not only be headed for military intervention themselves, but reportedly could end up pushing for Russian intervention. The fact Serbia is consulting with Russia on a joint response to the unrest is a clear example of the post-independent shift towards Russia already taking place. A shift toward the nationalists could be solidified without a nationalist as President and this would be a decisive push towards Russia.

After Kostunica's call for an election the issue of Kosovo will definitely become paramount in Serbia. Indeed his call may have been aimed at shifting the gears through electoral means rather than trying to reach an agreement with Tadic. A major success for nationalists would allow Kostunica to form a new government with Serbian Radicals and others, keeping the democratic parties in the minority. It is likely nationalists will portray the democrats as seeking membership in the EU without Kosovo while their goal is to join the EU with Kosovo. The fact Serbia's Radical party fared so well in the presidential elections should unnerve Tadic heading to parliamentary elections where nationalists have yet failed to net a majority. It seems even less likely for them to lose their majority under the present circumstances. The Western nations would have no room to argue whether Serbia's will is to push towards Europe and leave Kosovo behind it.

Beyond Serbia and Kosovo the implications in the Former Soviet Union are going to become an issue fairly soon. The Duma has announced what its official recommendation is likely to be as it concerns Abkhazia and South Ossetia, a request to initiate a process of recognition. While such a recommendation is sure not to be binding it does not rule out the possibility of its consideration. In particular it would mean Putin and the government most likely going against his party. However, at the same time the Duma gives the government some breathing by offering three scenarios for the breakaway republics:

• Recognition
  
• Transition to the so-called deferred status in bilateral relations with these territories
• Actively develop more comprehensive cooperation including the opening of Russian missions and the right of tax-free imports of goods produced by enterprises with the share of Russian capital, operating in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Russia is making an attempt to paint Kosovo as a precedent already emerging by mentioning the crisis in Macedonia's government and the unrest in Tibet. The former is motivated primarily by Albanians in the Macedonian government who have called for improvements in some areas for Albanians in Macedonia and recognition of Kosovo. Albanians in Macedonia are one prominent groups in the Balkans feared to use Kosovo as a precedent for independence which is believe could also result in a merger with Albania to form a Greater Albania. However, such moves along with clear moves towards partition in Kosovo are likely to open up a larger can of worms with movements for a Greater Serbia and United Macedonia coming into play, even Greater Hungary.

Though, while Greater Serbia and Greater Albania actions are likely to emerge out of Kosovo, it's possible other irredentist ambitions in the region will not result in any real consequences. As it concerns Macedonia the resolutions of the name dispute with Greece, recognition of Kosovo, and induction into NATO could cool any ethnic tensions among Albanians in that country. Induction of Albania could complicate the inclusion of Kosovo into the state, though a partition of Kosovo might quicken it or create an effective union between the two.

At the same time the reverberations from Kosovo will be felt as the precedent gains momentum. At present it does not have the stark implications for the world it has been played up to have, but that is likely to wait on the actions of Russia and Republika Srpska, possible the Albanians in Macedonia. If any of them seek to capitalize on a precedent the push for independence around the world will only be aggravated further. The negotiations on Western Sahara could reach an end this year and Somaliland may also receive recognition. Taiwan's fate seems likely to be decided soon with the presidential elections. Cypriot elections have given renewed consideration to the Cypriot status, though a likely failure could push Northern Cyprus over the edge. Pushes by regions in Georgia could be helped by Georgia receiving a Membership Action Plan for NATO in two weeks, the push for a merging of Srpska with the Bosnia Federation by the EU could push Srpska to a referendum if Kosovo doesn't, though no matter what Kosovo's independence would be linked to it. In every case it seems the answer leads to conflict in the end.

The confluence of so many major events around the world each with broad geopolitical implications one can't help but wonder if this is occurring by design or is simply a bad run of luck.