militants. It followed a massive rocket barrage on Wednesday involving nearly 100 rockets and mortars. While the past few days have been mainly Israeli airstrikes with Hamas launching retaliatory rocket fire, there are a signs the conflict is set to escalate.According to reports the Israeli Navy has begun shelling the Gaza Strip and is pulling towards the port of Gaza. Hamas built up a significant anti-ship capability during the past few years and especially during the truce. Now the time has come for this capability to be tested and if they armed or trained in a similar manner to Hezbollah in 2006 or better the Israeli navy could be finding itself in a very difficult position. On the Israeli-Gaza border other signs of escalation are emerging with tanks and infrantry beginning to mass along the border. The IDF has also called up some 6,500 reserve forces, with possibly more to come should Israel reinvade the Gaza Strip. Further signs indicate an invasion is likely as an artillery battery is being deployed along the border likely to provide support for the Israeli army.
How Hamas responds will likely determine the nature of any ground invasion. The ability of Hamas to continue attacks against Israel and resist the IDF will also likely determine how much a Gaza operation is intensified. It is not unlikely that subsequent invades could instigate an attempt to depose Hamas rule in the Gaza Strip. Hamas has made a number of threats which could cause this including threats to assassinate the Foreign Minister and Kadima party leader Tzip Livni as well as Defense Minister and Labor Party leader Ehud Barak.
Hamas also threatened attacks against Fatah forces in the West Bank and against "those in the Arab world who have conspired" against them which likely means Egypt. In this case Hamas has already begun its response to Egypt by temporarily breaching the Rafah crossing separating Gaza and Egypt. In addition shots were later fired across the border killing an Egyptian border officer. Actions by Hamas against Egypt could risk dragging them into the conflict on Israel's side even after Egypt condemned the attacks by Israel. Attacks on Fatah could allow Israel to use them for deposing Hamas.
Potential exists for the conflict to also spread beyond Gaza. The most likely second front would in Lebanon with Hezbollah. While Nasrallah has suggested Hezbollah would not take armed action against Israel he has in the past implied an attack on Gaza would lead to some form of military conflict with Israel. Hezbollah is preparing for the event of an attack by Israel but such preparations could easily lead to armed action against Israel in some form. One likely source of conflict are Israeli violations of Lebanese territory and the Shebaa Farms. These may not be considered by them to be attacks against Israel. There also remains the planned attacks to avenge the death of Imad Mugniyeh. An attempt by Israel to reinvade Gaza and/or depose Hamas could also be a trigger for Hezbollah actions against Israel.
However, it is also possible the conflict could spread there without Hezbollah action initially. In one case Thursday Lebanese army forces discovered rockets aimed at Israel set to be launched. Most likely the rockets belonged to a Palestinian group based in Southern Lebanon, but Hezbollah could have been supporting the action instead of taking action itself. This could be used as an excuse for some form of attack against Hezbollah by Israeli forces. Any major buildup by Hezbollah could have the same effect with Israel launching a "pre-emptive" attack.
While there are no signs of an imminent Middle Eastern War, there is a very strong chance the conflict in Gaza could spiral out of control and lead to such a war.
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