Hezbollah turns attention inward

As Hezbollah continues to build up its forces in preparation for a likely battle with Israel, possibly as a result of retaliation for a revenge strike over Mugniyeh's death the military situation has shifted to internal conflicts in Lebanon.

In the past few days Hezbollah has been fighting government parties in Lebanon. The conflict was sparked after the government pledged to investigate a Hezbollah telecom network and removed the chief of the Beirut airport. Nasrallah declared the tough action was a declaration of war by the government. Since then Hezbollah has been playing a game of chess with the government parties decisively trouncing them in every encounter. They started by seizing West Beirut and turning it over to the Lebanese army. Immediately following that it spread east, south, and north. Hezbollah's allies also began to engage in conflict with government parties without Hezbollah's intiative. The killing of several Hezbollah members in a Druse area near Beirut brought fighting to that area as well.

In the Druze areas Hezbollah's allies were able to take control and like in Beirut turned it over to the army. While the possibility of revenge killings has been raised one of the bigger uncertainties is the Christian population which continues to stay out of the conflict. Aoun and his Free Patriotic Movement are one of the big Christian militias and are allied with Hezbollah, Christians dominate East Beirut and are a major portion of the population. So far all conflicts have been between Muslim sects, with Christian groups largely staying out. The conflict so far has also exposed weaknesses of Lebanon's military which has seen its brokered agreements violated and has largely stayed on the sidelines.

Only on Tuesday several days after did the army declare it was ready to use force against militants, after Hezbollah achieved most of it successes. While the hostility has abated since the declaration Hezbollah has continued its political campaign against the government, calling for the resignation of the Prime Minister. The true magnitude of Hezbollah's victory is how those militias allied with the government are now being disarmed by the army as Hezbollah remains strong. Hezbollah succeed in taking key areas around Beirut and elsewhere in Lebanon, proving it is capable of overturning the government at the drop of a hat. An offer by President Bush to help arm the Lebanese military in order to disarm Hezbollah could reverse the calm in Lebanon, however if the government receives it.

Lebanon's government is also showing defiance as it says it would not "surrender" to Hezbollah's political demands. However Hezbollah continues to show its strength as a political force with its ongoing blockade of the Beirut airport. The struggle between the government and the opposition has left Lebanon paralyzed. An Arab League delegation is set to hold crisis talks to resolve the standoff, but with both sides likely to stick to their demands they could be left in a static position.

A failure to reach a compromise on the standoff could lead to renewed conflict, especially if Lebanon's government takes any move to receive arms from the United States. The government is also faced with the stark situation of dealing with the blocking of Beirut airport. As Lebanon's most crucial airport the Hezbollah civil disobedience campaign can only last for so long before it is seen as a hindrance. Should the police or army take actions to free up the airport Hezbollah will be provided with additional incentive to strike hard at the government.

Additionally Hezbollah's campaigns in east of Beirut against Druze strongholds has given Hezbollah strategic control of an important area of Lebanon. By taking the mountains east of Beirut Hezbollah has managed to link its stronghold in Southern Beirut with the Bekaa Valley, where it's greatest military strength is posted and where most weapons it brings into Lebanon pass through. It has also given Hezbollah strategic control of the major highway linking Syria and Lebanon. Control of such crucial territory would be a boon to Hezbollah in any conflict with Israel. As such Israel is given greater reason to launch the first strike, especially if Hezbollah tries to remove the government. This could be seen as preparation for an attack on Israel or at least the dangerous growth of strength of Hezbollah. Israel may consider a strike now to be the best way to avoid a more serious conflict later. However, any such attack would ultimately bring in Syria, Hamas, and Iran.

In the end the conflict in Lebanon could grow to a Middle Eastern War if the situation fails to subside.