Kosovo Precedent: A Pandora's Box

Yet another vague allusion to the independence of Kosovo has been made by Kosovo's government. Kosovo's Prime Minister declared independence is "an issue of days" and, "Kosovo is ready. we will proclaim independence very soon." Of course, such comments have become common place, but with the second round of Serbian presidential election fast approaching it is likely this isn't more blustering by Thaci. How things play out in Kosovo depends strongly on who gains hold in the elections for Serbia's next President. Results from the first round give a good indication:

Tomislav Nikolić (Томислав Николић)	Serbian Radical Party (Српска радикална странка)	1,646,172	39.99
Boris Tadić (Борис Тадић)	Democratic Party (Демократска странка)	1,457,030	35.39
Velimir Ilić (Велимир Илић)	New Serbia (Нова Србија)	305,828	7.43
Milutin Mrkonjić (Милутин Мркоњић)	Socialist Party of Serbia (Социјалистичка партија Србије)	245,889	5.97

Nikolic is sure to get votes from the Socialists and support from New Serbia voters may also swing to Nikolic. The strong support for nationalist politicians does not bode well for Tadic as his last victory was gained in a field more heavily divided and one where voters showed clear support for democratic candidates. Also in doubt is whether Kostunica will pledge his support for Tadic. One report says Kostunica placed a condition on any support he gives Tadic:

In exchange for his support, according to Belgrade daily Blic, Kostunica said Tadic must oppose the planned EU mission to Kosovo, unless the UN Security Council adopts a new resolution authorising it. In return, Tadic wants the prime minister to back the signing of a Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU.

However, it seems unlikely Tadic will actually follow through on this agreement. Kostunica probably does not want a simple condemnation of the EU force, but hinging the SAA on the refusal of such an agreement:

The Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) is calling for a tougher policy regarding the EU -- it does not want the SAA to be signed if the EU deploys that mission to Kosovo, without prior UN approval. The DSS says an EU mission to Kosovo would violate Serbia's sovereignty.

These are probably not terms Tadic will agree with. In the event Tadic signs the agreement over the objections of Kostunica, it is possible Kostunica will simply reject Tadic and possibly back Nikolic. Tadic will then be left with little chance of winning the second round of elections, chances already diminished based off the outpouring of nationalist support.

A Nikolic win would set events on the worse possible course. Kostunica's party would likely switch its coalition around to the Serbian Radicals, forming a strongly nationalist government. It is unlikely the EU will waver from its support of Kosovo no matter the outcome since Germany's foreign minister has already declared the international community can not "prevent" independence. Given Kostunica's warnings to the European Union about supporting Kosovo's independence, this probably will mean a shift away from the West and towards Russia.

Potential for instability expanding beyond Kosovo remains strong with the potential for a Greater Albania situation. There are even Albanian political organizations in the Balkans circulating maps showing an Albanian state encompassing Kosovo as well as territories in western Macedonia, parts of Greece and Montenegro. This likely includes areas of Serbia outside of Kosovo with Albanian populations.

Albania's government has been very accommodating for Kosovo, including allowing them passage to their Adriatic port. The possibility of merging an independent Kosovo with Albania has been raised on many occasions, but it's feared such an outcomes will mean rebellions in several Albanian areas seeking to merge with Albania.

To the side is an image of what such a Greater Albania would look like, with Albanian majority areas in purple, though in Greece it is unknown as minorities are not recognized. Despite few areas outside of Kosovo and Albania having a majority Albanian population, essentially every territory considered to be part of historic Albania is meant by Greater Albania. If such territories did merge with Albania ethnic cleansing of non-Albanians could follow either through voluntary abandonment or violent excursion. Such a scenario would be the makings of a new Balkans War.

Alongside this Russia's Foreign Minister is escalating the rhetoric around Kosovo:

It will set a precedent for several territories, not only Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but - according to our figures - for some 200 regions in states around the world. If we allow someone to do something, many others will expect the same treatment.

However, this statement was quickly backpedaled on according to news media, but his statements appear less like a denial, and more like spin:

The Russian leadership has never said that after the recognition of independence in Kosovo we would immediately recognise the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

This is true, Vladimir Putin and other leaders have never directly stated they would recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and at no time did they say they would do so immediately. He then takes an even more ridiculous spin on the situation:

Lavrov said "there is nothing more untruthful" than the idea that Moscow was waiting to use Kosovan independence as a pretext "to start recognising all and sundry. There could be nothing less true."

Of course, this is not denying any plans for recognition, but stating only that Moscow does not want Kosovo's independence because it can be used as a precedent. His comments become much more clear from there on:

The precedent will be created not because we want it but because it will be objectively created...because justice is an understanding that drives people. If someone is allowed to do something, many others will expect similar treatment.

In other words, Russia doesn't want Kosovo to get independence and they aren't planning to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as a response, but when Kosovo does get its independence the Abkhaz and Ossetians will expect to be recognized and so Russia will have no choice but to comply. Whether Russia does recognize the territories may depend on Georgia refusing to agree to a non-use of force agreement over South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Georgia is unlikely to agree as they believe the agreement as Russia proposes it treats South Ossetia and Abkhazia as countries separate from Georgia. It is also unlikely Russia will be willing to change this to imply the territories are part of Georgia.

Russia is not the only nation which is likely to exploit the precedent as Armenian officials often draw similarities between Nagorno-Karabakh and the Kosovo.

Such veiled comments seem to indicate the intentions of Russia and Armenia are ultimately to use Kosovo's independence as a precedent for breakaway regions, which are likely to ultimately merge with them. A merging of Albania and Kosovo may increase irredentist ambitions alongside ambitions for independence. Such a precedent could soon engulf Europe, Africa, and Asia in a tidal wave separatism ending with the possible dissolution of several states like Belgium and Somalia. Borders would be redrawn at a rapid pace resulting in countless conflicts. When the smoke clears, while numerous conflicts will likely be resolved, the path will be laid for a broader and more dangerous conflict. A conflict which could end up engulfing the whole world.

Kosovan Independence, Serbian Elections, and a Resurgent Russia

While speculation is rife about when Kosovo will gain its independence Kosovo's leaders are claiming it is quite imminent:

Kosovo’s new Prime Minister, Hashim Thaci, has said his homeland’s independence will be declared very soon.

While refusing to give an exact date for parliament’s expected proclamation of Kosovo’s statehood, Thaci told media on Sunday that “independence is only awaiting the procedural and ceremonial aspects of declaration.”

When exactly this means no one but those who already know can tell, but this statement was echoed by Kosovo's Speaker of Parliament:

The Assembly of Kosovo is approaching the moment of declaring independence, its speaker said on Monday afternoon.

Jakup Krasniqi, the new Speaker of the Kosovo legislative, told media that “the Assembly members are aware the declaration will take place in a very near future”.

Of notable interest is this:

He said that “the Assembly will hold preparatory consultations with President, Fatmir Sejdiu and Prime Minister Hashim Thaci before it proceeds with the proclamation”.

Perhaps these are the procedural and ceremonial aspects Thaci is talking about. Surely any declaration of independence would have to go through the Kosovo Assembly and Kosovo government. All the same none of this provides any timeline, though it is speculated to happen sometime after Serbian elections on the 3rd of February, the expected runoff election. The delay is mostly on the part of the West seeking to avoid disrupting the elections in favor of Nikolic of the Serbian Radical Party. However, whether this will actually take place as planned is unknown. It's possible Kosovo will not wait for the runoff election and declare independence immediately after the first round of elections.

Expectations in the West are largely naive and arrogant. Slovenia, holding the EU presidency, has offered Serbia candidate status for the EU. This is in keeping with the aspirations of Serbia's government. Of particular importance is the signing of the SAA agreement with the EU, slated for January 28. However, a Serbian resolution has said any agreement signed must respect Serbia's territorial integrity and it's unlikely the EU can be honestly considered to be respectful of Serbia's territorial integrity when they, alongside the U.S., are the ones planning on Kosovo's independence, which all Serbs would consider a violation of their territorial integrity.

How this plays out depends on the reaction of the Serbia public. The European Union and many countries in the West assume Serbia will simply lay over and play dead as it were with regards to Kosovo. In fact, this is exactly what they're banking on. The West wants Serbia to take the possibility of EU membership and ignore Kosovo's independence, thinking Serbia would have to be foolish to reject the embrace of Europe. Before this nations eagerly accepted EU membership and the EU members are now asking who should be held back and who should be let in. Never once had it been considered a nation may not want to join the EU.

Serbia, however, actually does want to join the EU all things considered. In a sense, Serbia would be like the abused child which, after being beaten ruthlessly by his parents, rushes back into their arms at a moment's notice giving the perpetual benefit of the doubt. Only problem with this is if Serbs are not so easily tricked by the EU. The crucial questions here are simple: Will Serbia's citizens look at the SAA as a sign of hope as the West is asking, even demanding, them to? or Will they be offended by the idea of the EU believing they'll rush into its arms despite being them plotting to dismember the country? The fact this move by the EU seems to be geared at improving Tadic's re-election chances may damage him in the end, especially since this reflects the EU's belief Tadic will stand aside and let Kosovo be taken from Serbia with no real objections.

Inevitably Nikolic is going to try and paint Tadic as a pet of the West running around like a dog barking and growling at them, but always rolling over when commanded. While Serbs favor joining the EU, it is not certain they'd like the idea of doing so at a time when the EU is trying to take away Kosovo. In this way the EU's push towards membership for Serbia may actually cause a backlash against them and increase support for Nikolic. If Kosovo declares independence beforehand this makes it even more likely. In fact, even without this it has been suggested Tadic may not be able to win:

Thursday’s edition of Blic daily quotes a survey carried out by the CeSID think-tank which says that Tadic can beat his likely main rival, Tomislav Nikolic of the ultra-nationalist Serbian Radical Party, only if all the parties in the governing coalition as well as the opposition Liberal Democratic Party back him in the second round.

Kostunica's party may choose against backing him and if they should back Nikolic, it creates a problem with Tadic's bid. His only recourse would be to break his coalition with Kostunica and dissolve the parliament, which might ultimately reflect more negatively on him. However, not acting may insure his defeat. This is not precluding the possibility that other parties may not back him. In the end, if Tadic loses Kostunica is sure to forge a new government with the Serbian Radicals. Westerners in favor of independence have made some pretty ridiculous conclusions about the events.

In all the imperial hubris one would expect from the 19th Century it is believed if Tadic wins Serbia will move on a glorious path towards peace and prosperity, by joining the European Union naturally, but if they choose Nikolic, Serbia will experience isolation, condemnation, and fall to the wayside, never mind Kosovo will suffer too even if there is no conflict. What is forgotten in all of this is the role of Russia.

Serbia's Kosovo Ministry Secretary of State Dušan Proroković made the stakes clear for the West when he said "Serbia would be forced to turn towards new strategic partners, countries that support its territorial integrity" if the West backed Kosovo's independence. This most likely means turning towards Russia, which is already in the works.

Gazprom's growing natural gas and oil monopoly is one of the most poignant signs of Russia's return as an imperial power. They've successfully used their hold on natural resources to force concession from neighboring states. While some in Serbia object to the idea, others would want to go one step further and join the Union of Russia and Belarus, effectively promoting unification with Russia. Impractical as it may be it's quite possible Belarus will be allowed to join the CSTO and EurAsEC as an alternative to the EU. In this respect it's interesting to note the growing integration of the organizations such as the formation of a customs union between Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. More recently the CSTO secretary general announced plans for a Shengen-style agreement for the CSTO and EurAsEC. An expansion of both bodies to include Serbia can not be ruled out and such an agreement would be extremely beneficial to Serbia.

The CSTO is also showing a great unity in military actions such as recent exercises which, despite denials, appear to be aimed at Azerbaijan. In the event a conflict should erupt over Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia comes under attack they can call up the collective defense obligations of CSTO member states in order to act against Azerbaijan. Which makes Serbian membership a more disturbing move, especially as Albania, Macedonia, and Croatia all look set to join NATO. Albania, especially is troubling if they should unite with Kosovo at some point, because it would effectively make any attempt to resolve that conflict a war between the U.S. and Russia.

However, one thing is certain and that is Kosovo's independence may push Serbia into the growing sphere of Russia's influence. A push that could set the U.S. and Russia on a future collision course.