Formation of a North American Union

When the European Union had its start it had only two real organs the European Coal and Steel Community and the European Defense Community, the future Western European Union. Soon other organizations were formed and as European citizens focused on more pressing matters of the Cold War and rebuilding their countries their leaders were sowing the seeds of a new national body.

The formation of the European Union capitalized on the desire for peace and prosperity with that peace after World War II. However, the powers of that organ have steadily increased with the passage of time and with little fanfare Europeans are now being pulled into an undemocratic superstate where their only chance of freedom is divorcing from the organization altogether and should the Reform Treaty be passed, it's likely even that will become mired in supranational politics amongst unelected bureaucrats making secession a matter of war.

One has to wonder if, in the future, people in North America will be looking back to now and seeing how they were so easily duped into an undemocratic superstate of their own. Like the European Union it has begun innocently enough, first we had CUSFTA, the Canadian-U.S. Free Trade Agreement. Ties with our northern neighbor were strong and intimate during the climate of the Cold War with NORAD another symboe of our solidarity.

However, when the Berlin Wall fell and the Soviet Union dissolved calls for a "New World Order" and the trend of globalization demanded further action. This came with NAFTA, which has now sown the very seeds that are leading to a superstate in Europe. Under NAFTA two additional organization have been founded the North American Agreement on Environmental Cooperation, capitalizing on worries about our continued destruction of the environment, and The North American Agreement on Labour Cooperation.

Under the NAAEC several other bodies have been formed such as the Commission for Environmental Cooperation, North American Development Bank, and the Border Environment Cooperation Commission. These bodies, and all of those under NAFTA, are run by federally appointed officials or appointees of federally appointed officials. Of particular importance is an identical provision carried by the NAFTA, NAALC, and NAAEC:

Any country or group of countries may accede to this Agreement subject to such terms and conditions as may be agreed between such country or countries and the Commission and following approval in accordance with the applicable legal procedures of each country.

Source: NAFTA Secretariat

This allows these organization to expand beyond their current signatories. Interestingly enough this same phrase is reproduced word-for-word in another free trade agreement, the DR-CAFTA. The replication of this provision clearly indicates the connection between DR-CAFTA and NAFTA. Canada is also planning a parallel agreement with these same countries. Those five countries happen to also be the members of the Central American Common Market.

A similar strategy was employed before in Europe. Initially two organizations, the European Economic Community and European Free Trade Area, were created separately, but ultimately paved the way for the merging of their economic polices and many of its members ultimately joined the EEC and EU. In a similar manner it is likely the CACM in conjunction with DR-CAFTA and the Canadian agreement will pave the way for a merging of the CACM with NAFTA and inclusion in related organs like NAAEC and NAALC.

However, an economic union and cooperation in the environment would be just the initial steps towards a North American superstate. This is where the SPP comes into play. Not only does the SPP look to expand the economic cooperation it extends to the security sphere. Conveniently 9-11 gave the deal greater acceptance as it provides for "securing borders" and working together "against terror threats" and countering natural disasters in addition to consolidating the three economies. Later expansion to the security side of the agreement is to be expected.

While the first steps into the security sphere indicate an increase in the integration process the SPP's relation to economic integration can't be ignored. The most relevant of these is the creation of the North American Competitiveness Council a government-mandated and corporate-run body involved in the integration process. In effect the SPP allows corporations to be involved in decisions with regards to the economic policy of the three nations they'll be under.

In the coming years we can expect the following:

1. A merger of the Central American Common Market with the NAFTA, NAAEC, and NAALC.

2. An expansion of the security sphere to include threats from foreign powers and military cooperation possibly including a North American security body.

3. Possible inclusion of Panama, Belize, and the Caribbean nations in the NAFTA and related agreements or some form of trade agreement by the NAFTA parties.

As North American integration pushes on we can also expect to see economic policy being decided more and more by corporations in an official capacity and environmental and security policies decided by the appointees of an increasingly stronger federal government.

A War Put on Hold

Two significant events have taken place to delay a conflict in the Middle East and Europe. The biggest delay is a Memorandum of Understanding signed in August 7 while the other is a minor delay in Kosovo from what was previously mentioned as Kosovo's Independence Day.

A delay to a conflict in Iraq was secured between Iraq and Turkey over the Kurdish north. However, this delay is set to last only two months. It is likely that this delay was meant to allow Turkey time to establish its government after recent elections. After approving the recent government the Turkish parliament is set to reconvene on October 1st. This effectively gives Iraq's government the month of September to resolve any disputes. However, Iraq's government is going to have plenty on its plate. An upcoming report by General Petraeus is already being speculated on as to what it will declare has happened and suggest in the future. Especially after another report concluded the Iraqi government has failed to meet nearly all of its benchmarks. One important benchmark is an oil law.

With Petraeus expected to request partial withdrawal of troops the pressure on Iraq is expected to increase. In a frenzy to satisfy the U.S. Iraqi lawmakers will rush to meet many of the demands of the United States and are unlikely to consider Turkey's interests. Also Iraq's has become government deeply divided over numerous domestic issues and Maliki is now beholden to Kurdish parties to secure his position in government. Maliki can't afford to lose their support at a crucial period when U.S. lawmakers are openly calling for Maliki's ouster. Kurds in the government are already saying they do not support fighting the PKK and so it's unlikely the PKK will be stopped by Iraq.

However, recently it seems while Turkey has reduced conflict with the Kurds, Iran has stepped up its actions in the North. The report also details apparent PUK support for the Iranian incursions. The PUK is headed by Jalal Talabani, the president of Iraq, a staunch ally of Maliki. Maliki's Dawa party is part of the United Iraqi Alliance which includes the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, both parties with deep Iran ties. This apparent conflict of interests between Talabani and fellow Kurds has the potential to lead to another Kurdish civil war if the PUK supports and joint Turkish-Iranian invasion of Northern Iraq. Maliki's government aiding such an operation is only going to lead to increased calls for his ouster and it is likely that the Kurdish Alliance will split between PUK and KDP with Barzani, President of the Kurdish Regional Government joining the opposition. While this event has been delayed there is a good chance the delay will only last to early October.

Kosovo's independence on the other hands has been delayed to after December 10 and the inevitable conclusion is all but acknowledged. News channels are even displaying a countdown to the end of negotiations over Kosovo's status. The conclusion being naturally apparent to everyone it appears preparations for independence and the ensuing war is going on across Europe. One bill recently proposed in Armenia intends to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh. While this was opposed by the government it was only because they said such recognition need a "serious foundation" which could be independence of Kosovo.

In addition to the legislation Azerbaijan is reporting tensions along the border of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenian forces. This is just another in a series of increasing tensions around these unrecognized republics. Similar tensions are going on along Kosovo's border which Serbia has used to justify an increased military presence on its side of the border. The possible dual implications aren't lost as Serbia's Prime Minister threatened last week to take any means to prevent the secession of Kosovo, undoubtedly referring to war.

To further legitimize Kosovo's independence the U.N. has called for elections to be held on November 17th just in time for a new government to take power before a declaration of independence. In fact, a delay in the process may be directly related to the need for some leeway as Kosovo builds its government.

The effort of politicians may have delayed conflict, but it seems war is still inevitable.